How do Donald Trump’s tweets affect investors? That’s the question analysts at JPMorgan Chase Bank try to answer with “Volfefe,” a new index that studies the volatility caused by the U.S. president’s messages in the bond market”.
With a name reminiscent of the famous “covfefe” that Trump mistakenly wrote on Twitter a couple of years ago, the tool has analyzed thousands of tweets since the tycoon came to the White House.
The conclusion, according to a report by JPMorgan Chase dated last Friday, is that certain messages from the U.S. president significantly increase volatility and that such messages are increasing in recent weeks.
“Some of these tweets have increasingly turned into issues that move markets, especially trade and monetary policy,” said the firm’s experts, saying these affect the market immediately.
According to JPMorgan, Trump has written on average more than ten tweets a day since taking office, a number that has been on the rise since late last year.
Some tweets that impact the market skyrocketed last August, according to experts, with repeated mentions of the trade war with China, the dollar or the policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The analysis focuses on two- and five-year U.S. Treasury bonds, which have been particularly affected by trade-linked tuits, with terms such as “China”, “trillions” and “products” among the most sensitive.
The JPMorgan index is not the first to look at the relationship between Trump’s Twitter activity and the markets.
Among others, a report by the firm Bank of America Merrill Lynch recently concluded that the exchange works better on days when Trump tweets little than on days when he is very active on his favourite platform.