Industrial production in Brazil during 2019 and 2020 will experience a “slight recovery”, while “continue to grow in Mexico” according to the risk rating agency Moody’s, which pointed out that private consumption in Argentina “will continue to fall”.
According to this US agency, “the bases of Mexico’s consumption will remain stable, but will grow more slowly until the middle or end of 2020.”
A general context of slow development of infrastructure projects in Latin America in 2019 and 2020 will lead in Mexico to the cooling of the economy and fiscal constraints and will hinder the government’s agenda to boost employment and economic growth, according to Moody’s.
As for the manufacturing sector, it will grow moderately in Mexico, “in parallel with the industrial production of the United States.”
The agency also notes that “the fundamentals of the energy industry in Mexico are negative” due to the continued fall of oil and gas production since 2004, due to “insufficient investments and a heavy tax burden”.
Regarding Brazil, Moody’s stresses that the consumer market “is still recovering for the period 2019-2020”.
In addition, according to the agency “the infrastructure bases of Brazil will remain stable until the middle or end of 2020, as the economy gradually recovers.”
The conditions of the Brazilian manufacturing sector for this period “will remain neutral with positive trends until mid or late 2020”.
In this sense, Moody’s continues: “The automotive, steel and consumer goods industries will benefit the most as local discretionary consumption recovers.”
On the energy sector in Brazil, the US agency He stressed that the regulations have become “a little more flexible” and that “the fundamentals of the Brazilian oil and gas sector are more positive in 2019-2020”.
As for Argentina, Moody’s highlights that the drop in private consumption in the Andean country will go “in line with a contraction of 1.5% in the economy and a persistently high level of inflation”.
In this country, investment in infrastructures will be affected by “weak GDP growth and lower economic activity,” which will also “have an impact on their demand for electricity.”
As well as regarding Mexico, the agency stressed that the regulations and mandates will also hinder in Argentina the development of projects in the oil and gas sector.